The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2012-13 and the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2012-13, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices.
2. The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (2004-05) prices, namely the private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.
I PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2012-13
3. The advance estimates of national income for the year 2012-13 were released on 7th February, 2013. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance and government expenditure.
4. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:
(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices
Gross Domestic Product
5. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2012-13 is now estimated at Rs. 55,05, 437 crore (as against Rs. 55,03,476 crore estimated earlier on 7th February, 2013), showing a growth rate of 5.0 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 52, 43,582 crore, released on 31th January 2013.
6. In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture showed a slight upward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in the production of rice (104.22 million Tonnes from 101.80 million Tonnes), wheat (93.62 million Tonnes from 92.30 million Tonnes) and sugarcane (336.15 million Tonnes from 334.5 million Tonnes) for the year 2012-13. Due to this revision in the production, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector in 2012-13 has shown a growth rate of 1.9 percent, as against the growth rate of 1.8 percent in the Advance Estimates.
7. In the case of ‘mining and quarrying’, the Index of Industrial Production of Mining (IIP-Mining) registered a decline of 2.5 percent during 2012-13, as against the decline of 1.5 percent during April-November, 2012, which was used in the Advance Estimates. Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 3.3 percent and (-) 0.6 percent in 2012-13 whereas during April to December, 2012, the growth rates were 5.7 percent and (-) 0.4 percent.The growth of ‘mining &quarrying’ is now estimated at (-) 0.6 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of 0.4 percent.
8. Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of 1.2 percent during 2012-13, as against the projected growth rate of 1.9 percent for April-March, 2012-13 for the Advance Estimates. Due to this, the growth of ‘manufacturing’ sector is now estimated at 1.0 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of 1.9 percent.
9. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth of 5.6 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively in 2012-13 as against 6.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively during April-December 2012. Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised downward to 4.3 percent as against 5.9 percent in the Advance Estimates.
10. The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown higher growth of 14.3 percent and 14.2 percent, respectively during 2012-13 over the corresponding period in 2011-12, as compared to growth of 11.1 percent and 15.2 percent as on December 2012. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and passenger Kilometers have have shown growth of 0.3 and 2.4 percentrespectively during 2012-13 .The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 6.4 percent in 2012-13 as against 5.2 percent in the advance estimate released in February,2013 as the private corporate sector registered significant growth in the Trade, hotels and restaurent sector in 2012-13.
11. The sector `community, social and personal services` has shown a growth of 6.6 percent in the revised estimates, as against the growth rate of 6.8 percent in the advance estimates.
Gross National Income
12. The Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is now estimated at Rs. 54,49,104 crore (as compared to Rs. 54,47,169 crore estimated on 7th February 2013), during 2012-13, as against the previous year’s First Revised Estimate of Rs. 51,96,848 crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 4.9 percent during 2012-13, in comparison to the growth rate of 6.4 percent in 2011-12.
Per Capita Net National Income
13. The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2012-13 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 39,168 (as against Rs. 39,143 estimated on 7th February, 2013), as compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 38,037. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 3.0 percent during 2012-13 as against 4.7 percent during 2011-12.
(b) Estimates at current prices
Gross Domestic Product
14. GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 94,61,013 crore, showing a growth rate of 13.3 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 83,53 ,495 crore, released on 31th January 2013.
Gross National Income
15. The GNI at factor cost at current prices is now estimated at Rs 93,61,113 crore during 2012-13, as compared to Rs. 82,76 ,665 crore during 2011-12, showing a rise of 13.1 percent.
Per Capita Net National Income
16. The per capita income at current prices during 2012-13 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 68,757 as compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 61,564 showing a rise of 11.7 percent.
II ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2012-13
17. Along with the Provisional Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2004-05) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly accounts of central government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
18. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 56,94,362crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 50,56,219 crore in 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 34,66,723crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 33,34,900 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 56.8 percent and 59.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 56.3 percent and 59.2 percent, respectively in 2011-12.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
19. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 11,86,761crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 10,42,677crore in 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 6,59,236 crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 6,34,559 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 11.8 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.6 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively in 2011-12.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
20. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 29,64,677crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 27,49,072 crore in 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 19,29,988crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 18,97,309 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 29.6 percent and 33.2 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.6 percent and 33.7 percent, respectively in 2011-12. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 3.5 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.
21. The discrepancies at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 3.4 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively of the GDP at market prices, as against the corresponding rate of 3.0 percent and 0.0 percent respectively in 2011-12.
22. Estimates of gross/net national income and per capita income, along with GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 at constant (2004-05) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 6.
III QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2012-13
(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices
23. The four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in Q4 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 14,70,782crore, as against Rs. 14,03,727 crore in Q4 of 2011-12, showing a growth rate of 4.8 percent.
24. Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (1.4 percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (-3.1 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (2.6 percent), ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ (2.8 percent) ‘construction’ (4.4 percent), `trade, hotels, transport and communication` (6.2 percent), `financing, insurance, real estate and business services` (9.1 percent), and `community, social and personal services` (4.0 percent).
25. According to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of (-) 4.2 percent, 2.6 percent and 2.3 percent respectively, in Q4 of 2012-13, as compared to the growth rates of (-) 0.4 percent, 0.3 percent and 4.5 percent respectively in these sectors in Q4, 2011-12.
26. The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown decline in growth rates of 1.2 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2012-13, as against the growth rates of 7.0 percent and 7.9 percent, in the corresponding period of previous year. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of (-) 2 percent, (-) 3.1 percent, (-) 4.27 percent and (-) 1.82 percent, respectively in 2012-13. The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of6.2 percent in 2012-13 as against 5.1 percent in Q4 of 2011-12 as the private corporate sector registered significant growth in the Trade, hotels and restaurent sector in 2012-13.
27. The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2004-05) market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 are estimated at Rs. 8,66,854 crore and Rs. 5,17,039 crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 were 54.7 percent and 32.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 54.3 percent and 32.5 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2011-12.
(b) Estimates at current prices
28. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q4 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 25,48,220 crore, as against Rs. 22,64,227 crore in Q4 of 2011-12, showing a growth of 12.5 percent.
29. The PFCE and GFCF at current market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 are estimated at Rs. 14,93,793 crore and Rs.8,13,868 crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2012-13 are estimated at 54.3 percent and 29.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 53.5 percent and 29.7 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2011-12.
30. Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the four quarters of 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 7 to 10.
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